The trumped-up tweeter and the chinese emperor seeking alpha

We are all thinking of the trade war between America and China in the wrong way. We are concentrating on the products, and the money, and who will win and who will lose, and how much it will all cost, and these are all secondary issues, in my humble opinion. I had my epiphany this morning.

On the other side of the Pacific Ocean we have a character of a different sort. While America bemoans the "Trump Tweets" and the "Stormy Dandy Lines," a flowering topic, Mr. Jinping has gotten himself elected Emperor for life. This is a trick even Mr. Trump has not been able to pull off. Can you imagine President Trump trying to pull this off in America?


Kansas City, Missouri and Des Moines, Iowa would fall into their rivers.

So, what we really have happening, is "Tweety Bird" playing a global "Games of Thrones" with the new Chinese Emperor. That is what is going on. That is what is unsettling the markets. These two fellows are engaged in a very serious "Game of Thrones."

"Soy Sauce" has become "Soy Beans." "Rolled Steel" has been printed incorrectly, and it is "Rolled Steal," one trying to take one thing from the other and win at the "Greater Game," which is whose Throne is more magnificent than the other one. You may think this is all about tariffs and "level playing fields" but I am telling you, "level" has nothing to do with it. This is power and domination and who controls whom and what.

While I write my commentary today, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, I hate writing boring stuff, there is also a great bit of truth in my presentation. It appears to be "Trade Wars," it seems to be a focus on tariffs, however, if you think of it in that fashion, you will miss the larger and much more important point. This is the two largest economies on the planet struggling for position, as President Jinping wants the "Silk Road," a return to China’s pre-eminence in the world, and President Trump has no desire to hand it over to him.

From President Trump‘s prospective it is the "Art of the Deal." Demand more than what you want and then back-up and compromise. We just saw it with steel and aluminum and we will see it again, in my opinion, with the struggle with China. "Push, shove and back-up," that is the President’s negotiating strategy.

One interesting part of all of this are the actual numbers. It is funny that no one seems to be taking them into consideration, but they obviously matter. If "Tweeter Trump" ups the proposed tariffs by another $100 billion, in response to what he calls "China’s unfair retaliation" then the economic game gets played out. China only imports $130 billion worth of goods from America and they will run out of additional imports to penalize, soon enough.

The United States imports $506 billion in goods and services from China. There is a major imbalance here and the truth is, in my view, that they need our markets far more than we need theirs. "In a serious economic battle, the U.S. wins. There is no question about that," says Derek Scissors, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Tariffs, you see, are just the armaments. This, in my humble opinion, is not "really" a trade war. This is just the "Greater Game" of Dominance. I thought that the markets would not respond well to all of this and so I said, a few days ago, "Find the hatches and batten them down." Those of you that followed my advice probably have a far dryer ship, after Friday’s debacle, than those that paid no attention to what I said.

Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies, and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true. Look with your eyes. Hear with your ears. Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose. Feel with your skin. Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth.

A "Game of Thrones" is defined by "Game Theory. Game theory is the science of strategy. It attempts to determine mathematically, and logically, the actions that the players should take to secure the best outcomes for themselves and their countries. The outcome for each participant depends upon the choices, strategies, of the players. In so-called zero-sum games the interests of the players conflict totally, so that one person’s gain always is another’s loss. More typical are games with the potential for either mutual gain, a positive sum, or mutual harm, a negative sum.